NBA season-preview capsules: Southwest Division

League: NBA


Posted on: 21 Oct, 2024 at 02:05 PM

Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

San Antonio Spurs
Predicted 2024-25 record: 38-44
Last season: 22-60, 14th in NBA Western Conference.

Last time ...
The Spurs had a head coach not named Gregg Popovich it was Bob Hill, who held the job from 1994-96. Popovich's 29-year run on the bench currently stands at 2,209 games.

FanDuel championship odds: +15000

Roster roll call
Draft Picks:
No. 4, PG Stephon Castle, UConn
No. 36, PG Juan Nunez, Spain (acquired from Pacers)
No. 48, F Harrison Ingram, North Carolina

DEPARTURES: F Dominick Barlow, G Devonte' Graham, F Cedi Osman
VETERAN ADDITIONS: F Harrison Barnes, PG Chris Paul

Big picture
Victor Wembanyama elevated the outlook in San Antonio for the first time in several seasons with a Rookie of the Year showing as the teen anchor of a young roster in the center of a top-down rebuild. The French star became a feisty centerpiece of the Spurs' defense to the delight of his throwback coach and nobody doubts where the ball will go with the game on the line. Castle is a playmaker with versatility who should benefit from Paul's arrival, and Barnes brings championship pedigree with flexibility of his own. The playoffs aren't exactly a pipedream this season, but another piece would help the Spurs win more fights in the loaded Western Conference.

Get to know ...
F Jeremy Sochan
A surprisingly complete stat line last season put Sochan on the radar of fantasy basketball players. He averaged 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists with a willingness to play any role Popovich could dream up. Yes, that included a stint as point forward and most of the second half of the season at power forward before a left ankle injury shelved him down the stretch. Teammates said the 21-year-old Sochan picked up his perimeter shooting and could be even more well-rounded next to Wembanyama this season.

--Dallas Mavericks
Predicted 2024-25 record: 50-32
Last season: 50-32, 5th in NBA Western Conference.

Last time ...
The Mavericks won 50-plus games in consecutive seasons in 2009-10 and 2010-11, when Dallas finished 57-25 and defeated the Miami Heat in six games to win their lone NBA championship. The Mavericks went 55-27 in 2009-10 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

FanDuel championship odds: +1100

Roster roll call
Draft Picks:
No. 51, F Melvin Ajinca, France (acquired from Knicks)
No. 58, C Ariel Hukporti, Germany (traded to Knicks)

DEPARTURES: F Derrick Jones Jr., G Tim Hardaway Jr., G Josh Green
VETERAN ADDITIONS: G Klay Thompson, G Spencer Dinwiddie, F Naji Marshall, G Quentin Grimes

Big picture
The Mavericks' surprising run to the NBA Finals materialized from the individual brilliance of Luka Doncic, who earned his fifth consecutive first-team All-NBA nod, the complementary scoring punch provided by Kyrie Irving, and the trade deadline acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, who combined to supply the scoring, rebounding and defense Dallas sorely needed in the margins. Thompson is tasked with rounding out the offense with his exceptional perimeter shooting while Dinwiddie offers a dependable, tertiary ball handler off the bench. The Mavericks not only have the experience needed to fashion another deep playoff push, but their depth should alleviate the pressure on Doncic to do everything when the moments are crucial.

Get to know
G Jaden Hardy
While Hardy experienced a slight downtick in productivity relative to average points, minutes and rebounds with declining shooting efficiency, his increase in games played -- 73 to 48 -- from his rookie campaign to his second season portends greater opportunity as a third-year player. Hardy has commented on a greater commitment to defensive reliability, but his scoring off the bench could be as valuable for the Mavericks, who remain in search of offensive cogs capable of playing alongside Doncic or Irving when that gifted tandem has their playing time staggered.

--Houston Rockets
Predicted 2024-25 record: 44-38
Last season: 41-41, 11th in NBA Western Conference.

Last time ...
The Rockets went five consecutive seasons without qualifying for the playoffs was from 1969-70 through 1973-74, bridging their final two seasons in San Diego and their first three in Houston. The Rockets last participated in the playoffs in 2019-20, when they were eliminated in the conference semifinals.

FanDuel championship odds: +8000

Roster roll call
Draft Picks:
No. 3, G Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
No. 44, G Pelle Larsson, Arizona (traded to Heat)

DEPARTURES: F Reggie Bullock, C Boban Marjanovic
VETERAN ADDITIONS: C Steven Adams

Big picture
The Rockets have drafted and developed a promising core of six players all 23 years old or younger, with the 20-year-old Sheppard joining that mix this season. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, both entering their fourth seasons without an extension beyond their rookie contracts, are integral to the Rockets moving beyond their protracted rebuild and ending their four-year playoff drought. And while the additions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks last offseason helped yield a spirited, unsuccessful late-season playoff charge, Houston would be better positioned in the future if Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore enjoy larger roles in their second seasons at the expense of the veterans - VanVleet and Brooks - blocking their future as starters.

Get to know ...
F Cam Whitmore
Although he earned a reputation as a black hole offensively, Whitmore showcased an all-around skillset as a 19-year-old rookie that justified his aggression. Whitmore averaged 23.7 points per 36 minutes (on 19.1 field goal attempts) and flashed talent at all three levels on offense. His rim attacks resulted in numerous thunderous dunks and his perimeter touch - Whitmore shot 35.9% on nearly five 3-point attempts per game - was a pleasant surprise. Whitmore seems poised to explode as a plus scorer, with the lone restriction being the minutes total he records.

--Memphis Grizzlies
Predicted 2024-25 record: 50-32
Last season: 27-55, 13th in NBA Western Conference.

Last time ...
A pair of teammates were named to the All-Defensive first team was 2020-21, when Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo accomplished the feat while with the Bucks. Jaren Jackson Jr. earned first-team accolades in 2021-22 and 2022-23 while Marcus Smart was named to the All-Defensive first time three times over the last six seasons.

FanDuel championship odds: +3400

Roster roll call
Draft Picks:
No. 9, C Zach Edey, Purdue
No. 39, F Jaylen Wells, Washington State
No. 53, G Cam Spencer, UConn (acquired from Pistons)

DEPARTURES: G Jordan Goodwin, G Derrick Rose, F Lamar Stevens, F Yuta Watanabe, F Ziaire Williams
VETERAN ADDITIONS: None

Big picture
Everything starts and ends for the Grizzlies with point guard Ja Morant, who lost 73 games to suspension and injury last season. Morant is a two-time All-Star, the 2019-20 Rookie of the Year, and a second-team All-NBA selection in 2021-22. While his off-court issues have been well-documented, Morant remains Memphis' driving force, and his extended absence last season scuttled the Grizzlies' playoff hopes. Memphis fielded an ascendant roster before Morant was lost, and with Desmond Bane, Jackson and Smart back in the fold, the Grizzlies certainly have the firepower to reclaim their position near the top of the Western Conference standings. If Morant is locked in mentally and healthy, the sky is the limit for these Grizzlies.

Get to know ...
F GG Jackson II
When it became clear that all was lost for the Grizzlies last season, Jackson earned his chance to shine. He didn't squander the opportunity, averaging 19.9 points and 5.1 rebounds while starting the final 16 games. That stretch culminated with the 19-year-old Jackson taking 20-plus shots in his final three starts while posting 32.3 points, five rebounds and 2.3 steals in those games. Memphis finished last in the NBA in offensive efficiency according to basketball reference. Jackson has shown the scoring prowess to undergird a better offense this season.

--New Orleans Pelicans
Predicted 2024-25 record: 42-40
Last season: 49-33, 7th in NBA Western Conference

Last time ...
The Pelicans won 50-plus games in a season was their first in New Orleans, when they were still the Hornets and finished 56-26 en route to a conference semifinals berth. Last season marked the third time the Pelicans won at least 49 games since their relocation from Charlotte.

FanDuel championship odds: +5000

Roster roll call
Draft Picks:
No. 21, C Yves Missi, Baylor
No. 47, G Antonio Reeves, Kentucky (acquired from Magic)

DEPARTURES: C Jonas Valanciunas, F Naji Marshall, F Larry Nance Jr., G Dyson Daniels
VETERAN ADDITIONS: G Dejounte Murray, G Javonte Green, C Daniel Theis

Big picture
Swapping out Valanciunas (6-11, 265) for Theis (6-8, 245) could potentially weaken the Pelicans on the glass. New Orleans finished 10th last season with a 50.5% rebound rate with Valanciunas, who averaged 10.1 rebounds over three seasons in New Orleans, leading the way. Theis has averaged only 4.8 rebounds during his 373-game career, and with starting forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram combining to snag 10.9 rebounds per game in 2023-24, the Pelicans might be susceptible on the boards with Theis inside. Of course, Williamson can mitigate many concerns should he enjoy another healthy campaign with peak production. He averaged 22.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and five assists while playing a career-best 70 games.

Get to know ...
F Trey Murphy III
Murphy finished second in Most Improved Player voting in 2022-23, his second season in the NBA. Injuries undermined his counting stats last season, but Murphy displayed additional improvement while averaging career highs in scoring (14.8 points), rebounding (4.9) and assists (2.2). His efficiency took a step back, with Murphy - who played a career-low 57 games last season - posting a 57.9 effective field goal percentage compared to 61% in 2022-23. But with Murray arriving as a true point guard running the offense, Murphy could enjoy superior perimeter looks this season.