World Series G4: Dodgers-Yankees Preview, Props & Prediction
League: MLB 
Posted on: 29 Oct, 2024 at 05:37 PM
Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the brink of the franchise's eighth World Series title, with an opportunity to close out the Yankees in New York in Game 4 on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles, attempting to secure the first World Series sweep since the 2012 San Francisco Giants beat the Detroit Tigers, will use a bullpen game for the fourth time in the postseason on Tuesday.
New York, which is trying to avoid getting swept in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1976 against the Cincinnati Reds, will start Luis Gil.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Similar to Game 3, the Yankees are consensus 1.5-run favorites at home. The public is expecting New York to at least extend the series, backing the Yankees with 90 percent of the run-line money at +140 and 54 percent of the moneyline action at -148.
Monday's 4-2 Dodgers victory brought the average total runs scored through three games down to 7.0. The Over/Under entering Game 4 is 8.5 runs, due in part to Los Angeles going with a bullpen day and the Yankees countering with Gil in his first World Series start. However, the Under has drawn 74 percent of the money.
PROP PICK
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+625 at BetMGM): Can he do it again? Each of the past five World Series games have featured a Freeman home run. In the Dodgers' loaded lineup, it's difficult to pitch around him no matter how hot Freeman's bat is. This prop has been the most popular at BetMGM, with the Over drawing 99 percent of the total bets.
KEY STAT
The Dodgers lead the best-of-seven series three games to none. Of the 24 teams to win the first three games of the best-of-seven set, 21 completed the sweep and the other three sealed the title in five games.
THE NEWS
Freeman has homered in each of the first three games of the World Series after struggling with an ankle injury in the Dodgers' first two rounds of the playoffs against the San Diego Padres and New York Mets.
He went 7-for-32 (.219) with no homers and one RBI in the first two rounds. Freeman is 4-for-12 with seven RBIs in his second World Series, and he joined Barry Bonds (2002 Giants) and Hank Bauer (1958 Yankees) as the third player to homer in the first three games of a Fall Classic.
"That's a really good team over there, so we don't take anything for granted," Los Angeles second baseman Gavin Lux said. "That last one's going to be the hardest one to get. So we've just got to come out and do the same thing that we've been doing this entire postseason, which is take it at-bat by at-bat, pitch by pitch and win every pitch and hopefully at the end of that we're where we want to be."
The Yankees are hitting .186 in the series and are 4-for-20 with runners in scoring position in the three games. Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk on Monday, is 1-for-12 (.083) in the series and 6-for-43 (.140) in the postseason with 20 strikeouts.
"All it takes is one swing, one at-bat, one play (and) everything changes for us," Judge said. "That's just the mindset you got to have going into this. It just takes one game."
Alex Verdugo hit a two-run homer in the ninth when the Yankees were down to their last strike on Monday night. Giancarlo Stanton had two hits but was thrown out at the plate by left fielder Teoscar Hernandez.
The Dodgers, who did not announce which pitcher would open Game 4, are 2-1 in three previous bullpen games in the 2024 postseason. Ryan Brasier opened two of those games, pitching 1 1/3 scoreless innings when the Dodgers faced elimination in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the Padres and then giving up one run in one inning of their Game 2 loss to the Mets in the NL Championship Series.
Brasier is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in seven postseason appearances this year after throwing a scoreless eighth inning on Monday.
Gil, a 15-game winner during the regular season, will make his second postseason start. Gil started Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Cleveland Guardians, and he allowed two runs on three hits in four innings and took a no-decision.
"I think it's going to be great," Gil said through an interpreter after making his World Series debut. "It's going to be like a dream come true. Just being out there and taking action, I think it's going to be incredible."
Gil will be the first Yankees rookie pitcher to start a World Series game since Orlando Hernandez pitched seven innings of one-run ball in Game 2 against the San Diego Padres in 1998.
Gil faced the Dodgers on June 9 and allowed three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision. Trent Grisham hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the sixth inning of New York's 6-4 win.
PREDICTION
All of the pressure is on the Yankees, who are sending Gil to the mound for his first World Series start while waiting for Judge's silent bat to come alive. The Dodgers know that no matter what they can't lose the series without returning to Los Angeles, but they waste no time in getting the job done Tuesday night. --Dodgers 6, Yankees 4
--Field Level Media
Los Angeles, attempting to secure the first World Series sweep since the 2012 San Francisco Giants beat the Detroit Tigers, will use a bullpen game for the fourth time in the postseason on Tuesday.
New York, which is trying to avoid getting swept in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1976 against the Cincinnati Reds, will start Luis Gil.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Similar to Game 3, the Yankees are consensus 1.5-run favorites at home. The public is expecting New York to at least extend the series, backing the Yankees with 90 percent of the run-line money at +140 and 54 percent of the moneyline action at -148.
Monday's 4-2 Dodgers victory brought the average total runs scored through three games down to 7.0. The Over/Under entering Game 4 is 8.5 runs, due in part to Los Angeles going with a bullpen day and the Yankees countering with Gil in his first World Series start. However, the Under has drawn 74 percent of the money.
PROP PICK
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Home Runs (+625 at BetMGM): Can he do it again? Each of the past five World Series games have featured a Freeman home run. In the Dodgers' loaded lineup, it's difficult to pitch around him no matter how hot Freeman's bat is. This prop has been the most popular at BetMGM, with the Over drawing 99 percent of the total bets.
KEY STAT
The Dodgers lead the best-of-seven series three games to none. Of the 24 teams to win the first three games of the best-of-seven set, 21 completed the sweep and the other three sealed the title in five games.
THE NEWS
Freeman has homered in each of the first three games of the World Series after struggling with an ankle injury in the Dodgers' first two rounds of the playoffs against the San Diego Padres and New York Mets.
He went 7-for-32 (.219) with no homers and one RBI in the first two rounds. Freeman is 4-for-12 with seven RBIs in his second World Series, and he joined Barry Bonds (2002 Giants) and Hank Bauer (1958 Yankees) as the third player to homer in the first three games of a Fall Classic.
"That's a really good team over there, so we don't take anything for granted," Los Angeles second baseman Gavin Lux said. "That last one's going to be the hardest one to get. So we've just got to come out and do the same thing that we've been doing this entire postseason, which is take it at-bat by at-bat, pitch by pitch and win every pitch and hopefully at the end of that we're where we want to be."
The Yankees are hitting .186 in the series and are 4-for-20 with runners in scoring position in the three games. Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk on Monday, is 1-for-12 (.083) in the series and 6-for-43 (.140) in the postseason with 20 strikeouts.
"All it takes is one swing, one at-bat, one play (and) everything changes for us," Judge said. "That's just the mindset you got to have going into this. It just takes one game."
Alex Verdugo hit a two-run homer in the ninth when the Yankees were down to their last strike on Monday night. Giancarlo Stanton had two hits but was thrown out at the plate by left fielder Teoscar Hernandez.
The Dodgers, who did not announce which pitcher would open Game 4, are 2-1 in three previous bullpen games in the 2024 postseason. Ryan Brasier opened two of those games, pitching 1 1/3 scoreless innings when the Dodgers faced elimination in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the Padres and then giving up one run in one inning of their Game 2 loss to the Mets in the NL Championship Series.
Brasier is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in seven postseason appearances this year after throwing a scoreless eighth inning on Monday.
Gil, a 15-game winner during the regular season, will make his second postseason start. Gil started Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Cleveland Guardians, and he allowed two runs on three hits in four innings and took a no-decision.
"I think it's going to be great," Gil said through an interpreter after making his World Series debut. "It's going to be like a dream come true. Just being out there and taking action, I think it's going to be incredible."
Gil will be the first Yankees rookie pitcher to start a World Series game since Orlando Hernandez pitched seven innings of one-run ball in Game 2 against the San Diego Padres in 1998.
Gil faced the Dodgers on June 9 and allowed three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision. Trent Grisham hit a go-ahead three-run homer in the sixth inning of New York's 6-4 win.
PREDICTION
All of the pressure is on the Yankees, who are sending Gil to the mound for his first World Series start while waiting for Judge's silent bat to come alive. The Dodgers know that no matter what they can't lose the series without returning to Los Angeles, but they waste no time in getting the job done Tuesday night. --Dodgers 6, Yankees 4
--Field Level Media
